1/19/2009

2009 - A Contracting Market for Fine Art

On Friday I posted about the upcoming contemporary, modern and impressionist sale at Sotheby's and Christies. The NY Times article states how unstable the fine art market currently is (ckick HERE to read post). Last week Scott Reyburn of Bloomberg also ran an article on expectations for the February London contemporary art sale. He compares 2009 estimates and lots from this year to years past and makes some very interesting assumptions.

Reyburn calculated the 2009 sales total low estimates for the Sotheby's, Christies and Phillips de Pury sales are $55.9 million. Sounds like a pretty good number, but when compared to last years totals you can easily see where Reybrun is going. The 2008 total low sales estimates were $244.57 million. The 2009 low estimate total for the big three contemporary auction houses is a mere 23% of the 2008 total.

Reyburn claims the auction houses are having a difficult time finding consignors for contemporary art in the current economic climate. The article also indicates that the major international auction houses are becoming more selective in what they are willing to accept, and being more conservative with estimates. The effort to lower estimates and price expectations also contribute to fewer consignors. As an example the 2008 sale at Sothebys had 70 lots, this year only 27, Christies had 54 to 31 this year and Philllips had 111 lots in 2008 with 53 for 2009. Those are some sizable changes in the amount of art being sold. The amount of commissions expected by the houses has to be greatly reduced. The 2009 sale has less than half the number of lots when compared to 2008.

From 2005 through 2007 the contemporary art market increase four fold. It look like the trend was going to continue through 2008 with solid results and and gains in the earlier part of the year, but when the 4th quarter arrived, the November contemporary art sales quickly began trending downward.

To read the Bloomgerg article click HERE, it has some excellent numbers and comparisons.

No comments: