The Economist Previews the 2009 Art Market

The Economist published a 2009 art preview article, with the overall consensus that 2009 will not be a year of high expectations. We have already covered on the AW Blog much of what is being said about the 2009 art market, such as no or at least fewer guarantees, lower estimates, more selective items, and a lower level of promotion.

The Economist states Auction house executives are already bracing themselves. “We are predicting dramatically reduced sales volumes,” Edward Dolman, Christie’s chief executive told The Economist on December 18th. “We’ve seen confidence dwindle away. People are not certain where prices are. Buyers all round are being very circumspect.” Death, divorce and debt will continue to provide artworks for the auction market. But discretionary sellers, who don’t have to sell, are likely to want to sit it out until things improve. “We’re not predicting much discretionary selling at all next year,” Mr Dolman said.

Looking ahead, says Helena Newman, vice-chairman of Sotheby’s Impressionist and modern art department worldwide, “We are aiming to put together tightly edited sales with estimates set at attractive levels for this market and with a focus on sourcing property for sale that is of high quality, corresponding to the tastes and desires of today's buyers.” Sotheby’s sale of Impressionist and modern art in February 2009 is likely to number no more than 30 pieces, she confirmed, compared with 76 a year earlier.

Neither of the main houses wants to be the first to announce job losses or cancelled sales, but there will be cuts. With smaller auctions comes the opportunity to reduce variable costs such as catalogues and marketing, where there is still a lot of fat.

The article ends with the sale that is generating the most excitement is the three-day auction of paintings, furniture, clothes and sculpture belonging to Yves Saint Laurent and his partner, Pierre Bergé. Like the Damien Hirst sale, it will be a party. Christie’s is hoping it will be a bash. Sotheby’s, its rival, is also hoping the sale goes well, for if it does it will mean that perhaps things aren’t quite so bad as they seem.

We can always hope.

To read the full Economist article, click HERE.