Contemporary Auction Sales Fell Over 70%

Scott Reyburn of Bloomberg has a very good article analyzing the current state of the Impressionist, modern and contemporary art markets. Although many feel the bottom has been hit and prices along with supply and demand are leveling out, Reyburn gives a very good perspective on how badly theses segments were hit. He states that contemporary and impressionist sales at the big three international houses (Sotheby's, Chrisite's, Phillips) were off by an incredible 70% from prior years sales.

I have covered many of the reasons for the lower sales here on the AW Blog, including guarantees, lower catalog estimates, the increases in private sales, and the economy. As new auction catalogs were issued, many of the auction houses included inserts on the benefits of private sales, taking away from the auction market sales. I do hope we are at the bottom, but the Reyuburn article is interesting as it pulls together all of the issues, and also compares to last year to reveal the enormous fall of this market. I do wonder on the 70% figure, it may be for strict auction sales but if you add in private sales, I would expect the decline to be far lower than the 70%. As always, with statistics and polls you have to be careful of what was and was not included.

Reyburn states The auction houses expect to make at least 100.9 million pounds ($165 million) in total. The equivalent sales last year had a low valuation of 334.7 million pounds. Reburn continues “Now that auctioneers aren’t offering guarantees, people are trying to negotiate private sales,” said Helena Newman, Sotheby’s London-based head of Impressionist auctions. “They’re saying, ‘This is what I want. If you can’t get it, I’d rather not sell.’”

Reyburn continues Estimates for contemporary-art auctions have contracted more. The average auction price of contemporary art has fallen 76.2 percent since May 2008, said London-based ArtTactic. In recent years, contemporary works had more speculative buying and re-selling than Impressionist pieces, said dealers. Sotheby’s expects to make at least 19 million pounds from its June 25 sale of contemporary works, less than a third of what it expected last year. The 17.4 million-pound low estimate for Christie’s sale on June 30 is 78 percent down on 2008. Phillips’s minimum valuation of 5.4 million pounds for its June 29 sale is 82 percent lower. “Over the last couple of years we could use guarantees to tease out high-value property,” said Cheyenne Westphal, Sotheby’s European chairman of contemporary art. “We could say a work would fetch $15 million and put a check on the table.

I highly recommend you reading the full article. Again the perspective and change in culture of the auction houses is evident. To read the Bloomberg article, click HERE.