ART: Focus on Old Masters

Art Research Technologies has just released their monthly ART report on the upcoming Old Master sales at Sotheby's and Chrisite's in London.

The summary Focus On: Old Masters report from ART states the two major houses are bullish on the market sector, with high estimates on many of the lots. The sector's buyers are typically a bit more restrained than the buyers at contemporary sales which were very successful, so it will be interesting to see if the strength in the top end of the market is beyond ImpMod and Contemporary sectors.

I will of course post results of the sales when the data become available.

ART reports

Next week, Christie's and Sotheby's will continue to test buyers' appetites for sky-high price points in the Old Master category. The buy-in of Nicolas Poussin's The Ordination (est. $23.4-$31.2 million) at Christie's during the last major series of Old Master sales in London proved that steep estimates are not necessarily self-fulfilling prophecies. The houses are proceeding nonetheless with bullish expectations for this summer's projected top lots: Sotheby's exceptionally large Francesco Guardi carries an estimate of $24 million to $40 million (see page 3), while Christie's George Stubbs cover lot is expected to bring $32 million to $48 million (see page 7). The last time the market saw an estimate on an Old Master work that stretched into $40-million territory was in 2009, when Christie's offered Rembrandt's Portrait of a Man with Arms Akimbo for $29.6 million to $41.1 million (the house got $33.2 million for it). Not even J.M.W. Turner's Modern Rome - Campo Vaccino, which sold for $45.1 million last July, carried such a high estimate.

As jaw-dropping as the estimates on these forthcoming lots are, it must be said that the houses appear to be doing a good job of gauging demand so far in 2011. The overall sell-through rate for Old Masters in 2011 (65%) is on par with its level last year, and the category has already registered one eight-figure price: Titian's A Sacra Conversazione (est. $15-$20 million), which sold for $16.9 million in January, despite the fact that such highly valued Old Master lots are typically reserved for the London sales.

1. Between 2006 and 2007, Sotheby's average price for a work sold in an Old Master auction grew by 67%.

2. So far in 2011 the houses' estimates on Old Master works have been the most accurate for lots under $50,000, which have comprised nearly 50% of the lots sold in the category.

3. Since 2006, only four of Francesco Guardi's works have sold for more than $1 million while his lots under $500,000 have accounted for 91% of his total sales.

4. In January 2010, a river view by Saloman van Ruysdael more than tripled its high estimate to bring $3.3 million -- the artist's highest price since 1997.

5. The top of George Stubbs's market is ruled by horse paintings: Eight of his top ten prices have gone to paintings with equestrian themes.

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