The BAA reports that in general, both Post War/Contemporary (PWC) and Impressionist/Modern (IMPMOD) sales with past price data did well, but the PWC really performed well. There were 33 lots in the sales with previous price data for the PWC evening category, and the compound annual return was an impressive 16.33%.
For the IMPMOD lots, there was past price data on 34 selling lots from the evening sales, and the compound annual return was 7.6%.
The press release and auction summary from Mei Moses/Beautifual Asset Advisors is below, but to get a really good idea of what is happening in the markets and the categories you have to look beyond evening sales and the trophy sales to the day sales. For example Mei Moses has data and analysis on 153 lots with previous sales results from the IMPMOD day sales and 96 lots from the PWC day lot sales. Without revealing proprietary content, I can say is the returns are lower without the trophy sales. For the detailed analysis you need to be a subscriber of Mei Moses Art Indexes/Beautiful Asset Advisors. The data and information is excellent, as is the market analysis which is all well worth the rather nominal fee. There is a current offer for new subscribers as well as renewals with 18 months for the 12 month fee. One year subscriptions for appraisers is only $250.00.
Beautiful Asset Advisors report on the sales
Source: Beautiful Asset Advisors5/22/2013
INSIGHTS ON ART MARKET TRUE RETURNS DURING MAJOR SALES IN NEW YORK DURING MAY 2013 BASED ON THE UPDATED MEI MOSES® REPEAT SALE DATABASE©
JIANPING MEI & MICHAEL MOSES
A TALE OF TWO MARKETS FROM A TRUE RETURNS PERSPECTIVE: POST WAR AND CONTEMPORARY SALES SOAR WHILE IMPRESSIONIST AND MODERN SALES LANGUISH AT MAJOR MAY 2013 NEW YORK SALES
THE NEW YORK AUCTION ART MARKET RESPONDED TO CONTINUED GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY WITH BIPOLAR RESULTS. THE POST WAR AND CONTEMPORARY (PWC) EVENING SALES PRODUCED SPECTACULAR RESULTS WITH AVERAGE COMPOUND ANNUAL RETURNS (CAR) OF 16.3% FOR THE 33 LOTS WITH PRIOR AUCTION PURCHASE PRICE DATA. IN COMPARISON THE 34 IMPRESSIONIST AND MODERN (IMPMOD) EVENING LOTS WITH PURCHASE PRICE DATA PRODUCED AN AVERAGE CAR OF 7.6%.
IN ADDITION ART SLIGHTLY OUTPERFORMED EQUITIES ASSUMING THE EQUITY RETURNS WERE BASED ON INVESTING SIMILAR SUMS IN THE S&P 500 TOTAL RETURN INDEX FOR THE SAME HOLDING PERIOD AS EACH ART OBJECT. ©
SUMMARY
There were ten day and evening post war and contemporary and impressionist and modern sales held in New York in May. This is the high point of the spring auction season in New York and the sales generated over $1.5 billion dollars in sales at the two auction houses we cover in our analysis; Sotheby’s and Christie’s. The sales have been reported in the press as having results for total sales or percent sold that ranged from spectacular to poor. We found 282 lots that sold that had prior auction prices that we could find which allow us to compute a true return for each of these objects. From a financial returns perspective of the holders of the art that sold the results were slightly below historical return results for these two collecting categories. The average of the compound annual returns (CAR) of all of the 282 lots that sold was 7.3% which is about 10% lower than our historical values for these combined collecting categories. However these returns were slightly above the returns that would have been achieved if the value of the art purchases had been invested instead in the S&P 500 Total Return index (where dividends are reinvested tax free) for the identical holding periods as the art. The average CAR for the S&P investments would have been 7.1%. This was a great result for the owners of the art since they basically received the enjoyment of viewing their art for free.
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